The NGFS has developed and published 6 scenarios which fall into three categories: Orderly, Disorderly and Hot house world.
Orderly scenarios comprise climate policies that are introduced early and gradually become more stringent. The first is Net Zero 2050, which limits global warming to 1.5°C through stringent climate policies and innovation, reaching global net zero CO2 emissions around 2050. The second orderly scenario is called Below 2°C, in which the stringency of climate policies gradually increases, leading to the 2/3 chance of limiting global warming to below 2°C.
Disorderly scenarios comprise policies that are either delayed or divergent across countries and sectors. The first one in this category is Divergent Net Zero. This scenario reaches net zero emissions also around 2050, but with larger costs than Net Zero 2050, due to divergent policies across sectors and regions. The second one is called Delayed transition, which assumes that global annual emissions do not decrease, and the carbon price stays low until 2030.
The last category are two Hot house scenarios: which assume that some climate policies are implemented in some jurisdictions, but global policies are insufficient to limit global warming to 2°C. The first one is the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which includes all pledged policies by local authorities, and the second is the so-called Current Policies, which assumes that only currently implemented policies are sustained.
For each scenario, the NGFS provides forecasts of variables such as Carbon Emissions, Carbon Price, GDP growth and others, helping researchers and financial institutions to map these scenarios into economic and financial risks.