Modelling

Market risk

When asked “What will financial markets do?”, Warren Buffet famously said: “Financial markets will fluctuate.”

Probability & Partners provide solutions to problems where market risk plays an important role.

Services and vision

We build and validate market risk models.
We believe in cross-fertilization between model building and model validation.
We have expertise in all major asset classes: Equity, Commodity, Interest Rates and FX.
We assess models’ compliance with regulatory requirements.

Examples of expertise

Derivaties pricing.
Initial margin modelling for CCPs and clearing members.
Asset and Liability Management (ALM).
Interest rate and inflation risk.
Energy markets and derivatives.
XVA modelling (CVA, DVA, MVA).

Quantitative Investment Strategies

Mark Twain said: “Plan for the future because that’s where you are going to spend the rest of your life”.

At Probability, we advise you on cutting egde but also on straightforward investment strategies.

Our focus is on

ESG (environmental, social, governance) investing. Our ESG related research includes:
News and social media sentiment analysis for investment and trading. Research includes:
- Adding sentiment to multifactor equity strategies
Simple, easy-to-understand asset allocation and stock selection.

Our unique perspective

Objective and data-driven approach to investment decisions.
Excellent academic expertise and track record in sentiment analysis for finance.
Deep understanding of investment opinions and the needs of our clients.

Data analytics and machine learning

Another famous quote we work by is: “The goal is to turn data into information, and information into insight”, as said by Carly Fiorina.

Our vision on data analytics at Probability & Partners is summarized in that famous quote by Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard. We help our clients to uncover the potential that lies in data. Our goal is to utilize the data to find empirically sound answers.