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Probability and Partners is a consultancy firm specialized in offering risk management services to the financial industry. Risk taking is a central part of the business model of our clients. The goal of risk management is to ensure that risks are taken in such a way that the financial institution does not suffer excessive losses from which it eventually fails.
Our clients can be exposed to a wide range of risks. The services offered by Probability & Partners span the wide range of topics in risk management.
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On a high-level, risks in the financial industry are typically classified as either a financial risk or non-financial risk. For example, a bank may suffer losses if clients are unable to repay their loan (credit risk) or when changes in market rates affect the value of the instruments the bank owns (market risk). Additionally, a bank will be in serious trouble when it has insufficient liquid assets to meet its payment requirements on a given day (liquidity risk). Insurers and pension funds are also exposed to changes in life expectancy which affect future payment obligations (longevity risk), and to changes in returns on their investment portfolio which is held to meet the promises made to policyholders (equity risk).
Although less prominent, non-financial risks play an equally important role for our clients. For example, a power outage may prevent the business from running (operational risk) and a hack could lead to the theft of sensitive information (cyber risk). A model with unidentified shortcomings may be used to make wrong decisions (model risk), while changes in legislation may affect the business model or the value of financial instruments (legal risk). Financial institutions may get fined when failing to prevent money laundering (fraud risk), or may see clients leaving due to bad press (reputation risk).
How a risk is dealt with depends on the type of risk and the client. Broadly one can distinguish between a quantitative and qualitative approach. In a quantitative approach, the aim is to accurately measure the exposure to a certain risk. For example, client behavior can be modeled to predict in which cases a client will exercise his right to prepay a loan ahead of schedule (prepayment risk), and historical price fluctuations and market prices can be used to price a complex derivative. The extent to which a client is exposed to a risk determines the level of accuracy used to quantify the risk.
The accuracy of a quantitative approach may be limited due to a lack of representative data, or because events observed in the past may not be representative of the future. A qualitative approach is therefore complemented by a quantitative approach in which risks are actively steered. Qualitative risk management can involve the identification and prioritization of risks, and the development of a hedging strategy. Other activities can involve solidifying how risk management is organized (governance) or formulating an independent opinion on processes and controls (audit).
We believe that a diverse mix of people is required to excel in risk management. By combining practitioners with seasoned consultants and academics, we are able to give high-quality advice. Our practitioners have years of experience fulfilling a prominent position at a financial institution. Their background as an internal employee allows them to understand priorities, the dynamics between risk management and the business, and how risks are interconnected. They are complemented by our consultants with many years of experience with providing advice and know how to make a lasting impact from the outside. Lastly, our academics have access to the latest insights and are keen to challenge what is known. Their insights bring the quality of our advice to another level and trigger us to think beyond what was done in the past.
The result of our approach is that clients like to ask for our help with problems that are not straightforward. In other words, the solution required is not readily available in a textbook but requires knowledge of a wide range of methods and a thorough understanding of the problem context. This aligns with the character of our people. We want our people to be happy in the work they do, as we believe this will also lead to happier clients. We are therefore selective in the assignments we accept and make sure they are sufficiently interesting and challenging.
Our company is composed of intrinsically motivated and helpful colleagues. We are proud of our work, but we also value our family, friends, and personal interests. We therefore believe in a healthy work-life balance. While a project deadline may sometimes require an additional effort, you are always able to compensate extra hours for off-days in later periods. Nevertheless, we do not have excessive workweeks. We also offer a lot of flexibility in contracts (e.g., part-time and leaves), allowing you to combine work with other things in life.
Our culture can be described as open. Our philosophy is that if you want to be involved, you can be involved. We believe that every colleague can make a significant and visible contribution to the firm. Internal company meetings are therefore open for each colleague to join, whether it discusses sales or the strategy of the company. We are also welcoming to initiatives that help to grow the business.
We also value informal contact among our colleagues. We aim to organize a social event at least every other month, and we regularly have an informal chat or play a video game throughout the month.
Probability & Partners is an English-speaking company; our internal communication and documentation language are English. Our colleagues come from diverse backgrounds, including Russia, Aruba, China, Surinam, Ukraine, and South Africa.
Working as a consultant is different from working as an internal employee at a financial institution. A comparison is presented in the figure below. Note that one is not necessarily better than the other, it all depends on your personal working- and learning preferences.
Our activities in risk management are very broad. During the first part of your career, we will expose you to different types of financial institutions and risk types. Joining Probability & Partners will therefore allow you to find out which topics and sectors you really like in risk management.
There are different directions you can take to develop your career in risk. You can strive to become a specialist on a specific range of risk topics, an expert in modeling techniques, a data specialist, a project manager, or a generalist who is able to transform risk measurement into decisions. We will support you with relevant training in whichever direction you choose to take. There is no fixed budget to support your development, if the training is relevant and you can motivate its purpose you can do it.
Upon joining Probability & Partners we will link you to a senior consultant, who will help you with decisions regarding personal growth. Additionally, the accessibility of our senior- and partner staff is unique. Frequent discussions with them will excel your knowledge development and soft skills.
Working activities for Probability & Partners can be roughly divided into three activities: client work, internal projects, and business development.
Given the nature of consulting it is difficult to predict ahead of time what your week will look like. Client work always takes precedence over internal projects and business development. Assuming a 5-day working week, there may be weeks in which you will spend 4 days working for a client. Vice versa, there may also be periods in which you don’t have any client work. Work can also be ad-hoc from time to time, as a sudden client request may require you to drop your internal project(s) to support the client’s needs.
Internal projects are often centered around research close to your personal interests and with relevance for Probability. Furthermore, an internal project could be the development of a Python package to support research activities, building a calculation tool, or organizing a client- or recruitment event. The figure below gives an impression of work week activities for a junior colleague.
We are looking for people who like solving complex problems but also have a pragmatic attitude. To like working for us, you need to be interested in risk management and the financial industry. To serve our clients well it is important to be communicative and inquisitive. We work in teams for and with our clients, so it is also important that you enjoy working with others. Probability and Partners is a premier brand among risk consulting firms. As such, we look for people with an outstanding academic track record.
To fit well in our team we look for people that dare to challenge, have a sense of humor, and are excited about learning. You need to enjoy helping others, even at times when you are already quite busy. Our internal communication is in English, so you should be highly proficient in spoken and written English. Knowledge of Dutch is not required.
For our quantitative services in risk management, we are looking for graduates with a quantitative background such as Applied Mathematics, Econometrics, Actuarial Sciences, Quantitative Finance. However, we also hire people with a background in areas such as Physics, Aerospace Engineering, and Artificial Intelligence. The common denominator is that you should have had exposure to modeling, data, programming, and statistics during your studies.
We are always open to hiring talented interns to work on their thesis or one of our internal research projects. We can provide excellent supervision from Svetlana Borovkova, who also acts as the program coordinator of the Duisenberg Honours MSc program in Quantitative Risk Management at VU Amsterdam. We therefore have an excellent understanding of how to balance relevant questions from the financial industry with the requirements of your master thesis.
Our company provides multiple quantitative services, of which modeling and validation are the most prominent. Modeling is the development process of building a model, and involves data collection, developing a methodology, prototyping, and backtesting. Validation is the performance of an independent check on a model to ensure the limitations of a model are known and the quality of the model continues to be in line with its role in the organization.
Our people are specialized in a broad range of quantitative techniques. A strong foundation of our modeling business is stochastic modeling in trading risk. Furthermore, we apply Econometrics, Machine Learning, and Artificial Intelligence in areas such as credit risk and asset and liability management. A third important area of our work is performance measurement and sentiment analysis for asset managers.
Examples of recent work by our colleagues:
I started my journey with Probability & Partners by working as a risk analyst for a large asset manager in the Netherlands, spending four days a week at the client. This experience allowed me to learn about corporate behavior, engage with hands-on solutions, and understand how various financial risks are managed and mitigated in the asset management sector. The structure at Probability & Partners permits an average maximum of 32 hours per week on client work, ensuring at least one day is available to pursue personal interests in the financial sector that are also relevant to the company.
At Probability & Partners, you are encouraged to pursue personal training, with all internal projects supervised by a sector lead. This ensures immediate guidance from knowledgeable individuals and minimizes downtime waiting for senior responses. This less hierarchical approach sets the company apart from larger consulting firms and allowed me to deepen my knowledge of programming and regulations and to participate in projects across various sectors, including insurance. One of the company’s strengths is its focus on innovation to stay ahead of competitors, making research highly valued. The diverse team, including practitioners, consultants, and academics, all with extensive experience and willingness to help, provides access to highly experienced colleagues.
Probability & Partners strives to develop well-rounded consultants with practical experience, driven by current issues, and equipped with project management skills to adapt to any situation and deliver top-notch service to clients. In the company’s environment, your opinion is not only needed but also deeply valued, fostering an intrinsically motivated workplace. At Probability & Partners, all members regard each other as family, always willing to help one another as the company believes that by combining and sharing skills, the learning curve will be steeper, and the solutions provided more efficient.
I’ve been with Probability & Partners for nearly two years, during which I’ve been involved in a wide range of projects across various sectors and service lines. As a Qualitative Risk Management Consultant, I focus on identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks using diverse interpretive techniques and frameworks. Furthermore, I have been involved in projects related to financial regulations including ICAAP, ILAAP, and other regulatory instruments.
Working at Probability & Partners is especially exciting because of the variety of work I get to do. From client projects to internal projects, there’s always something new to tackle, which keeps me constantly developing my skills.
I have always been interested in enhancing my quantitative risk management abilities. Here, I have had the chance to dedicate time to learning through courses and hands-on training from senior members of the company.
Probability & Partners is a diverse company, not just in terms of nationalities but also in the wide range of skills within the team. This diversity enriches our collaboration and drives innovative solutions for our clients.
